Lessons from El Niño: Indonesia’s Food Security Begins with the Soil Beneath Our Feet

El Niño is a recurring natural phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years. From the major events of 2015 and 2023 to the conditions we face today, each cycle offers important lessons. El Niño tests our food security while exposing the vulnerability of our agricultural systems and ecosystems to climate change, from declining production of major commodities to heightened risks of forest and peatland fires.

Whenever drought strikes, our attention often turns to short-term crisis management: securing water supplies, keeping irrigation systems running, providing emergency assistance to farmers, and mitigating the impacts on communities. These measures are undoubtedly essential. Yet simply surviving one drought cycle does not automatically make us more resilient to the next.

If there is one lesson to draw from the recurring El Niño phenomenon, it is that food security, particularly when supported by the agricultural sector, cannot be built overnight when the dry season arrives. Resilience must be established long before a crisis occurs, and its foundation lies in an element we often overlook: soil health.

For decades, Indonesia has focused on increasing agricultural productivity to meet the needs of its growing population. This strategy has delivered significant progress, but prolonged agricultural intensification has also brought serious consequences, including the degradation of soil health. As organic matter content and biodiversity decline, the soil's essential functions weaken, leaving agricultural land increasingly vulnerable when rainfall decreases.

Healthy soil, however, serves as a form of natural infrastructure and a critical asset for agricultural resilience. It can retain substantial amounts of water, maintain nutrient availability, and support sustained productivity. Amid growing global climate uncertainty, these ecological functions represent a strategic advantage. Soil health is a key determinant of how well agricultural land can withstand extreme climate conditions.

Responding to El Niño-related shocks therefore requires a layered approach that combines short-term risk mitigation with long-term investments in resilience.

In the short term, priorities should focus on operational measures, including access to real-time weather data, improved water management, the distribution of climate-adaptive crop varieties, and financial safety nets for affected farmers.

Over the longer term, however, systemic transformation must begin with investments in the resilience of agricultural land. One promising approach is regenerative agriculture, which focuses on restoring the ecological functions of soil while maintaining agricultural productivity and economic sustainability. This approach encompasses a range of practices, including increasing soil organic matter, diversifying crops, and improving water-use efficiency according to the specific characteristics of each region.

Building more resilient agricultural systems, however, requires both time and financial resources. Restoring soil structure and changing farming practices cannot be accomplished within a single growing season. During the transition, farmers may experience temporary declines in output, income disruptions, or additional operating costs. Placing the entire burden of this transition on farmers is neither realistic nor a sound policy approach.

Strengthening agricultural resilience is therefore not simply about changing practices at the farm level. It also requires creating an enabling ecosystem in which farmers can adopt these changes while managing the associated risks.

Governments can contribute through water infrastructure, agricultural extension services, climate information, financing, insurance, and policies that reduce transition risks. Businesses can create more reliable market demand while providing incentives for practices that improve agricultural resilience. Financial institutions and philanthropic organisations can develop innovative financing mechanisms that account for the time required for ecological investments to generate returns. Researchers, universities, cooperatives, and development organisations can help ensure that knowledge and technologies are genuinely suited to conditions on the ground.

Across this ecosystem, farmers must be recognised as central actors, rather than merely the subjects of policy interventions. Regenerative agriculture does not follow a one-size-fits-all approach. Practices that succeed in one region may not necessarily be suitable elsewhere. Farmers need opportunities to test and adapt practices, supported by scientific research and technical assistance that strengthen, rather than replace, the local knowledge they already possess.

This is the essence of climate adaptation: not simply attempting to avoid every shock, but building the capacity for resilience so that food systems can absorb the impacts of crises, remain productive, and recover more quickly.

Indonesia may not be able to control when El Niño occurs, but we can determine how resilient we are when it does.

This article was written by Maura Tri Hardini, Policy Specialist at Pijar Foundation. The article was originally published by SINDOnews.